NIFTY Performance Analysis: Budget Day Impact Over 11 Years

NIFTY Performance Analysis: Budget Day Impact Over 11 Years

Overview

This analysis examines the NIFTY index's performance on budget days and its subsequent movement one month later over the past 11 years. The data spans from 2013 to 2023, covering different Finance Ministers and their respective budget announcements.

Data Summary

Analysis

1. 
   

   P. Chidambaram (2013-2014)

   • 2013: NIFTY declined by 2% on Budget Day and sustained this decline a month later.
   • 2014: The index remained stable on Budget Day but rose by 8% over the next month.

2. 
   

   Arun Jaitley (2014-2018)

   • 2014: Budget Day saw no significant movement, with a slight 1% increase over the month.
   • 2015: A 1% rise on Budget Day was followed by a 6% decline over the month.
   • 2016: A slight drop on Budget Day, but an 8% rise over the following month.
   • 2017: A 2% rise on Budget Day and a 4% rise over the month.
   • 2018: Stable on Budget Day, with a 6% increase over the month.

3. 
   

   Piyush Goyal (2019)

   • 2019: A 1% rise on Budget Day, but the index remained stable over the next month.

4. 
   

   Nirmala Sitharaman (2019-2023)

   • 2019: A 1% decline on Budget Day, followed by a 9% drop over the month.
   • 2020: A 3% decline on Budget Day, with a 7% drop over the month.
   • 2021: A significant 5% rise on Budget Day, continuing with an 8% rise over the month.
   • 2022: A 1% rise on Budget Day, followed by a 4% decline over the month.
   • 2023: The index remained stable on Budget Day, with a slight 1% decline over the month.

Key Insights

• 
  
• Market Reaction to Budget Announcements:
  • The market's immediate reaction to budget announcements varies, with some budgets leading to immediate declines while others see a rise or remain stable.
• 
  
• One-Month Post-Budget Trends:
  • The post-budget month often shows a significant divergence from the immediate Budget Day reaction, reflecting the market's assimilation of budget impacts.
• 
  
• Impact of Finance Ministers:
  • The data indicates varying market confidence levels depending on the Finance Minister and the economic context during their tenure.

Conclusion

The NIFTY index's performance around budget days over the past 11 years shows that while Budget Day reactions can be mixed, the subsequent month often reflects a clearer market sentiment. It's important to consider these trends for educational purposes, understanding that market reactions can be influenced by a myriad of factors including global economic conditions, investor sentiment, and specific budgetary measures.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.